LONDON / ConSynSer / – On Wednesday, October 21, Brent crude futures increased by $1.21 to reach $110 per barrel, according to Reuters, as ongoing Middle East conflicts kept the oil markets volatile. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude gained over $1 to close at $99 a barrel. Early session price jumps were driven by recent tanker incidents and attacks on Saudi energy facilities, but these gains were later offset by signs of recovery in Gulf export flows. Currently, Brent is trading nearly 80% higher than it was a year ago.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced that naval mines had halted three tankers traveling through routes not authorized by Tehran. A vessel was struck near Oman, as reported by the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency. Yemen’s Houthi movement claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield, in addition to assaults on airports in Riyadh and Abha. These events have intensified fears over supply routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Throughout the trading day, volatility persisted. Brent initially gained but then retraced its steps, falling below $108 per barrel. WTI briefly touched $100 before slipping below $98. Freight rates in the Persian Gulf remained at record levels, exerting upward pressure on prices. Over the past month, Brent has surged approximately 8%. After dropping to $100.34 in September, Brent has since rebounded and remains well above that threshold, maintaining its upward trend.
Hormuz exports nearing prewar volumes
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz are approaching levels seen before the war. Data from tanker trackers Kpler and Vortexa indicate a rise in Middle East crude exports since summer, with producers increasing shuttle shipments and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports increased by 7.9% in August, reaching the highest point since March, helping to limit Wednesday’s price rally.
Market participants also analyzed recent US inventory data, which showed a crude stock decline of just over 3 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. This was less than the 4.9 million barrels previously reported by the American Petroleum Institute. US weekly crude production fell to approximately 13.27 million barrels per day from 13.68 million the week before, offering a mixed outlook on US supply levels.
Russian diesel deal and drone attacks escalate
Russia was expected to dispatch its first diesel shipment to the United States on Thursday, following a deal between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Last week, Trump suspended Graham Act penalties, removing tariffs on Russian fuel products. Meanwhile, Ukraine has increased drone strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure, which Trading Economics suggests aims to prevent Moscow’s diesel exports from expanding further.
On Thursday, October 22, oil prices extended gains after a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field resulted in two fatalities. Brent surpassed $111 per barrel, while WTI rose above $99. The US also advised certain personnel and their families to evacuate US embassies in Saudi Arabia. Traders remain vigilant, closely monitoring Gulf shipping, Saudi oil supply, and Russian fuel exports to gauge potential price movements.