NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – After completing four years of gains, the U.S. stock bull market entered its fifth year Monday, with attention focused on earnings. The S&P 500 has risen approximately 119% from its bear-market closing low of Oct. 12, 2022, according to Truist analysis. That year, the index closed at 3,577.03—its lowest since November 2020—before climbing to 7,811.54 on Friday, representing a 14.1% increase in 2026 and approaching record heights. The weekly gain was 1.2%.
This current rally ranks as the 11th bull market since the 1950s within the historical record, becoming the seventh to last at least four years. Despite the 119% gain, this performance falls below the 184% average advance seen across the studied bull markets. Historically, earlier cycles experienced significantly larger increases: from 2009 to 2020, the market surged 401%, and from 1987 to 2000, it grew 582%. These periods are among the most robust in history.
Most past bull markets that reached this stage have continued to produce positive returns. Out of the previous 10 bull runs, six lasted longer than four years. When markets hit their fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median gain of 15%. The study also notes an average maximum drawdown of approximately 14% during fifth years, although these figures reflect historical trends rather than a forecast for the current cycle.
Strong Earnings Growth Bolsters Market Confidence
During the latest phase of the rally, corporate earnings have seen notable strength. FactSet reported that S&P 500 third-quarter earnings as of Oct. 9 were tracking 29.6% above the same period last year, marking a third consecutive quarter with year-over-year earnings growth exceeding 25%. The growth rate was 29.2% at the end of the quarter on Sept. 30. Of 19 index companies reporting by Oct. 9, 84% surpassed analysts’ average earnings estimates, with aggregate earnings exceeding forecasts by 4.9%.
Expectations for the remainder of the year remain high, with analysts projecting fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings to increase 27.6% from a year earlier and full-year earnings growth for 2026 estimated at 32.4%. Notably, semiconductor and hardware firms account for roughly 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates and approximately 75% of revisions to 2027 estimates year-to-date, according to Barclays research. This underscores the ongoing importance of technology-related companies in earnings forecasts.
Interest Rates Continue to Influence Market Dynamics
The market’s upward trajectory persists amid elevated U.S. interest rates and high government bond yields. On Sept. 16, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. The Fed noted that economic activity remains solid and that inflation continues to be elevated. For 2026, the median economic growth projection stands at 2.3%, with the unemployment rate forecasted at 4.1%. The next policy meeting is scheduled from Oct. 27 to Oct. 28.
Long-term Treasury yields also remain near multi-year highs as the bull market enters its fifth year, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 5.24% on Oct. 9 and the 30-year yield at 5.60%. The S&P 500 closed that session 0.6% higher at 7,811.54, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.6%. Stocks are now approaching record levels, supported by robust earnings growth and borrowing costs still above earlier bull-market levels.