NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – U.S. consumer confidence declined to its lowest point since April 2014 in September, continuing a three-month downward trend in household sentiment. The Conference Board announced that its Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 6.7 points to 81.9, with August’s figure revised downward to 88.6. The survey, conducted from September 1 through September 23, showed declines in both current condition assessments and outlooks for the next six months during the month.
The Present Situation Index dropped 7.9 points to 109.3, indicating a weakening in perceptions of business and labor markets. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6, marking its third consecutive monthly decline. This index gauges outlooks on income, employment, and business conditions over the upcoming half-year. Following decreases in July and August, September’s decline pushed the overall confidence measure further below earlier this year’s levels.
The survey by the Conference Board revealed a noticeable shift in consumer perspectives regarding current business conditions. Only 18.5% of respondents described conditions as good, compared to 18.8% in August, while those rating conditions as bad increased to 20.4% from 17.3%. Views on the labor market also deteriorated, with 23.6% perceiving jobs as plentiful, down from 24.5%, and 21.9% stating jobs were hard to find, up from 20.3%.
Inflation Expectations Rise Amid Elevated Fuel Prices
In September, consumers reported higher inflation expectations. The average 12-month outlook increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, with the median climbing to 5.1%. Federal data showed consumer prices rose 3.4% in August compared to the previous year. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated gasoline prices increased by 3.9% during August. Additionally, AAA reported a national average of about $4.46 per gallon for regular gasoline on September 29.
Spending plans for several categories also showed signs of restraint. On a six-month moving average, intentions to purchase automobiles and homes both slightly declined in September. Expected spending on services, including hotels, movies, air travel, and amusement parks, continued to decrease. However, vacation plans remained robust, with 42.6% of consumers planning a trip within six months, a 0.5 percentage point increase from August, mostly driven by domestic travel.
Business, Employment, and Income Outlooks Weaken
Expectations regarding business conditions, employment, and income prospects also softened. Only 15.9% of consumers anticipated improvements in business, down from 17.0% in August, while those expecting conditions to worsen rose to 25.4% from 23.3%. The share expecting more jobs to become available decreased to 14.0%, and those expecting fewer jobs increased to 28.4%. Income outlooks also dulled, with 17.9% expecting gains and 15.4% anticipating declines over the next six months.
The survey further revealed growing pressure on household finances, with net views of current family finances turning negative for only the second time since the measure’s inception four years ago. Confidence levels declined across all age and income groups on a six-month moving average basis. Toluna conducts this online monthly survey for The Conference Board, with September’s preliminary results closing on September 23. The next Consumer Confidence Index release is scheduled for October 27.